← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 44% | 39% | 2.10 | fair |
| Munich 1860 win | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 282.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1521.54 | 1516.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.23 | -43.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 51.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.64 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |