← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 49% | 43% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| Aachen win | 24% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Aachen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 159.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1443.99 | 1389.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.22 | -52.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.75 |
| state index | 0.27 | -1.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |