← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 52% | 59% | 1.80 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Duisburg win | 23% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Duisburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 403.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1440.39 | 1642.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.59 | 46.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| league points | 28.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.18 |
| state index | -0.15 | 1.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |