← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Thu, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 53% | 48% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +4% |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 22% | 23% | 4.75 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1770.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1455.49 | 1436.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.22 | 24.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| league points | 39.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |