← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Mon, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 49% | 48% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 23% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 11872.00 | 12329.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1619.60 | 1562.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.64 | -19.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 53.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 1.89 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |