← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 39% | 42% | 2.50 | value: +5% |
| Karlsruhe win | 34% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 31.00 | 1766.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1325.38 | 1474.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.34 | -13.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| league points | 20.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.44 |
| state index | -1.40 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |