← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 45% | 36% | 2.10 | fair |
| Duisburg win | 28% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 152.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1445.91 | 1438.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 52.49 | 8.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |