← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 55% | 51% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.80 | value: +11% |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 20% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1735.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1432.47 | 1655.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.16 | 42.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 2.21 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.65 |
| league points | 30.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.19 |
| state index | 0.00 | 1.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |