← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aachen win | 43% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
| Dresden win | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aachen | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1399.16 | 1471.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.80 | 6.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 21.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.22 |
| state index | -1.29 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |