← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 53% | 47% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +4% |
| Duisburg win | 21% | 24% | 4.75 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 268.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1536.76 | 1423.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.12 | -13.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 50.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 0.92 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |