← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock win | 50% | 38% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.60 | value: +18% |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 23% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hansa Rostock | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1353.86 | 1422.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.49 | 5.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| league points | 17.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.04 |
| state index | -1.25 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |