← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 58% | 54% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.00 | value: +18% |
| Braunschweig win | 18% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 11863.00 | 1423.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1625.79 | 1434.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.37 | 12.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 52.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.42 |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |