← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt FSV win | 44% | 33% | 2.15 | fair |
| Aachen win | 29% | 37% | 3.40 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frankfurt FSV | Aachen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1391.62 | 1407.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.50 | -31.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 25.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.81 |
| state index | -0.38 | -1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |