← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 48% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 25% | 19% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 631.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1485.24 | 1432.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.17 | 43.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 31.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.96 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |