← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 45% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 12314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1409.63 | 1580.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.14 | 13.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| league points | 24.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |