← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg win | 39% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +5% |
| Bochum win | 33% | 28% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Duisburg | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 626.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1413.22 | 1495.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.79 | -21.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 21.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.24 |
| state index | -1.30 | -0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |