← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 37% | 33% | 2.55 | fair |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 34% | 37% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 137.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1409.23 | 1560.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.66 | 10.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 22.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |