← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 66% | 74% | 1.40 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 21% | 15% | 4.75 | fair |
| Dresden win | 13% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 381.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1610.83 | 1491.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.45 | 14.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 52.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |