← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Wed, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 42% | 42% | 2.20 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1407.59 | 1539.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.72 | 8.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| league points | 23.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.75 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |