← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 49% | 61% | 1.91 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 24% | 18% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1495.59 | 1405.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.91 | 22.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 32.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.88 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |