← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 44% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +6% |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 29% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frankfurt FSV | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1368.14 | 1559.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.14 | 38.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 21.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.83 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |