← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 67% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.75 | value: +9% |
| Aachen win | 12% | 12% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | Aachen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1713.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1632.43 | 1426.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.10 | 2.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| league points | 50.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 0.88 |
| state index | 1.03 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |