← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 43% | 49% | 2.25 | value: +9% |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 29% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Frankfurt FSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1405.31 | 1375.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.68 | 2.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| league points | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| state index | -1.07 | -0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |