← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 67% | 75% | 1.40 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.50 | fair |
| Cottbus win | 12% | 9% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 369.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1596.40 | 1443.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.22 | -18.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 46.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |