← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aachen win | 39% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aachen | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1442.04 | 1548.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.47 | 21.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 21.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |