← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 39% | 36% | 2.40 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 33% | 35% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 122.00 | 1736.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1404.78 | 1477.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.52 | -24.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 20.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.48 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |