← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 50% | 39% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
| Duisburg win | 23% | 31% | 4.33 | value: +34% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Duisburg | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1418.80 | 1623.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.11 | 10.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 2.21 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| league points | 20.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 2.04 |
| state index | -1.15 | 0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |