← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 45% | 53% | 2.10 | value: +11% |
| Dresden win | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 610.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1511.26 | 1476.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.71 | 17.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| league points | 30.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |