← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 58% | 56% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
| Bochum win | 17% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1700.00 | 604.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1612.21 | 1522.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.64 | 24.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| league points | 44.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.36 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |