← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cottbus win | 47% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 25% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cottbus | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 86.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1431.49 | 1417.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.61 | -30.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| league points | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.95 |
| state index | -1.20 | -1.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |