← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Fri, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 44% | 43% | 2.15 | fair |
| Duisburg win | 29% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1465.63 | 1429.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.87 | -29.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 26.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |