← 2. Bundesliga 2011-12 · Mon, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 40% | 35% | 2.40 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 31% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1390.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1418.77 | 1422.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.59 | -11.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| league points | 19.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.43 |
| state index | -1.11 | -0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |