← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 40% | 36% | 2.38 | fair |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 33% | 35% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2144.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1415.99 | 1532.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.89 | 35.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 36.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.58 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |