← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt FSV win | 39% | 36% | 2.40 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 34% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frankfurt FSV | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1403.78 | 1471.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.02 | -0.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 38.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.61 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |