← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 45% | 51% | 2.05 | value: +5% |
| Ingolstadt win | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1536.22 | 1463.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.56 | 36.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| league points | 51.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |