← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 42% | 51% | 2.20 | value: +13% |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 30% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 584.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1482.16 | 1657.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.23 | 15.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 53.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 2.13 |
| state index | -0.24 | 1.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |