← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 54% | 34% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
| Bielefeld win | 21% | 41% | 4.50 | value: +85% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 188.00 | 4237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1325.61 | 1394.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.74 | -12.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 16.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.94 |
| state index | -1.36 | -0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |