← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Mon, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 37% | 36% | 2.70 | fair |
| Cottbus win | 36% | 39% | 2.70 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cottbus | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 670.00 | 761.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1535.09 | 1624.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.72 | -4.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 51.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.97 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |