← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 44% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 29% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 174.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1464.58 | 1480.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.52 | -4.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 35.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.68 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |