← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 45% | 50% | 2.05 | value: +3% |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 28% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | VfL Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2128.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1418.27 | 1364.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.51 | -17.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 33.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.90 |
| state index | -1.15 | -1.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |