← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 63% | 71% | 1.50 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
| Munich 1860 win | 15% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 575.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1673.26 | 1520.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.85 | 26.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| league points | 68.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 1.55 |
| state index | 1.19 | 0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |