← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 63% | 52% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +20% |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 13% | 19% | 7.50 | value: +42% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 302.00 | 1428.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1544.01 | 1452.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.80 | 7.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 56.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |