← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aachen win | 53% | 65% | 1.75 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
| Oberhausen win | 22% | 15% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aachen | Oberhausen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1484.53 | 1349.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.58 | -13.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 44.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.90 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |