← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 39% | 44% | 2.38 | value: +5% |
| Ingolstadt win | 32% | 27% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1423.00 | 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1454.00 | 1463.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.93 | 53.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| league points | 38.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.13 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |