← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 68% | 69% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
| Bielefeld win | 12% | 11% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 11528.00 | 174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1541.63 | 1334.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.48 | -14.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 45.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.53 |
| state index | 0.72 | -1.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |