← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 61% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
| Aachen win | 16% | 16% | 6.50 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Aachen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 753.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1640.30 | 1468.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.21 | -24.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| league points | 61.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.37 |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |