← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 36% | 38% | 2.70 | value: +3% |
| Greuther Furth win | 35% | 32% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1392.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1503.09 | 1566.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.15 | 3.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 45.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |