← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 37% | 46% | 2.50 | value: +15% |
| Ingolstadt win | 34% | 27% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2109.00 | 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1424.88 | 1441.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.19 | 65.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 31.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.07 |
| state index | -1.06 | 0.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |