← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 41% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
| Cottbus win | 31% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 647.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1496.97 | 1529.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.34 | 9.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 42.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.61 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |