← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg win | 45% | 54% | 2.10 | value: +14% |
| Aachen win | 28% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Duisburg | Aachen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1501.80 | 1500.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.38 | -22.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 43.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |